This piece was done for subscripers on 12/8. TMH eventually priced below range at $12. Disclosure: I am currently long TMH at an average price of approximately $12.6.

2009-12-08
TMH - Team Health Holdings

TMH - Team Health Holdings plans on offering 20 million shares at a range of $14-$16. BofA Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Barclays are leading the deal, five firms co-managing. Insiders(Blackstone) will be selling 9.3 million shares in the deal. Post-ipo TMH will have 61.4 million shares outstanding for a market cap of 921 million on a pricing of $15. Ipo proceeds will be used to repay debt.

Post-ipo Blackstone will own 54% of TMH post-ipo. Yet another private equity related ipo. Blackstone purchased TMH in 2005 in a leveraged buyout. The deal laid substantial debt onto the back of TMH, most of which will still be in place post-ipo. TMH will have $400 million in net debt on the books post-ipo. Note too that not only is Blackstone selling 9.3 million shares in the deal, they are also grabbing $33 million in cash off the balance sheet on ipo.

From the prospectus:

'We believe we are one of the largest suppliers of outsourced healthcare professional staffing and administrative services to hospitals and other healthcare providers in the United States.'

TMH serves approximately 550 hospital clients and their affiliated clinics in 46 states with a team of approximately 6,100 healthcare professionals, including physicians, physician assistants and nurse practitioners.

Traditionally TMH has focused on staffing hospital emergency rooms and also branched out to include staffing services for hospital medicine (hospitalist), radiology, and pediatrics. Emergency rooms and hospitalist staffing accounted for 79% of 2008 revenues.

**Essentially a combination outsourced emergency room management company coupled with a hospitalist operator akin to recent ipo IPCM.

In 2008 TMH provided services to over 7.6 million emergency room patients. Emergency rooms are a growth business within hospitals, TMH has seen 9% annual revenue growth from their emergency rooms over the past 5 years. TMH focuses on high volume larger hospital emergency rooms which tend to be in larger urban areas.

Most recent 12 month hospital emergency department renewal rate was 98% with a 95% physician retention rate.

TMH's services include:

*recruiting, scheduling and credential coordination for clinical and non-clinical medical professionals. This include providing medical directors;

*coding, billing and collection of fees for services provided by medical professionals;

*administrative support services, such as payroll, professional liability insurance coverage, continuing medical education services and management training;

Sector - Outsourced healthcare staffing is estimated at $50 billion. Emergency departments represent a majority of admissions for key medical services. TMH believes the numbers of emergency room visits is increasing as the overall number of emergency rooms across the US is decreasing. As the baby boomers and older generations above 55 years represent a larger percentage of the population (approximately 23% in 2008 and projected to be approximately 29% in 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau), the demand for ED services is likely to increase.

Growth strategy - Other than winning new contracts, TMH expects to grow via acquisitions. TMH estimates that 75% of emergency department outsourcing is done by smaller regional companies leading to many potential acquisitions targets among the regional outsourcing providers.

CMS - For 2009 the CMS total increase for emergency room reimbursement was 4% for services most commonly provided by emergency physicians. Currently it appears emergency room physicians may be seeing a hefty cut in Medicare reimbursement in 2010. The final rule for 2010 includes a 21.2% rate reduction in the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule for 2010. There is a chance Congress will roll this hefty cut back before implementation in 2010. If not, TMH will not be growing revenues in 2010. Note that TMH will pass through much of the cuts to physicians themselves, however a 21% cut in physician reimbursements would mean TMH will feel the effects on the top and bottom line to some degree. **Note that 22% of 2008 revenues were derived from Medicare.

Florida and Tennessee account for approximately 16% and 17% or revenues respectively.

67% of emergency rooms outsource to a national, regional or local emergency physician group. Of these hospitals that outsource, approximately 52% contract with a local provider, approximately 23% contract with a regional provider and approximately 25% contract with a national provider.

Financials

Approximately $397 million in net debt-post ipo. TMH will have $475 million of debt on the books post-ipo and $78 million in cash. Expect TMH to utilize their cash to acquite smaller companies.

12% of revenues are derived from contracts with the military. TMH recently won a renewal on their military contracts for 2010.

Uncollectables run about 8%-9% annually.

Revenue growth has been driven by new business, organic growth in emergency room visits and acquisitions.

2009 - Revenues should be $1.43 billion, a 7.5% increase over 2008. As a 'middle man' operation, margins are not particularly strong. Gross margins should be 23%. Operating expense ratio of 12%, operating margins of 11%. Debt servicing should eat up 18% of operating profits in 2009. Plugging in taxes(38%), net margins should be 5 1/2%. Earnings per share should be $1.25. On a pricing of $15, TMH would trade 12 X's 2009 earnings.

Primary public comparable is Emergency Medical Services(EMS). We'll take a quick look at EMS as well as recent hospitalist ipo IPCM.

2010 - Tricky to forecast as the forecast CMS cuts loom. Odds are Congress will push out those cuts, however they have yet to do so. I will instead take a cue from the analysts estimates on competitor EMS forecasting growth similar to 2009. TMH will most likely make an acquisition or two the first half of 2009 and has shown an ability to win new contracts. Revenue growth the past three years has been 9%, 12% and 7.5%. 7% revenue growth for 2010 appears to be nicely conservative. If the 21% cuts to Medicare physician reimbursement stay, revenue growth would be cut in at east half down to 3% or so. 7% revenue growth would be $1.53 billion. Margins should remain consistent to slightly lower, with debt servicing eating up 17% of operating profits putting net margins in the same 5 1/2% ballpark. Earnings per share would be $1.40. On a pricing of $15, TMH would trade 11 X's 2010 earnings.

EMS - $2.04 billion market cap with $120 million in net debt. Currently trades 17 X's 2010 earnings with an expected 6% revenue growth rate. Net margins slightly lower than TMH due to lower margin emergency transportation segment.

IPCM - $511 million market cap with a small net cash position on books. Currently trades 22 X's 2010 earnings with an expected 20% revenue growth rate. Net margins with slightly better net margins than TMH.

Conclusion - Seems priced to work. Large successful company with strong cash flows operating in a growth segment of the health and medical field. Negatives here the LBO related debt on the books and the looming potential large cuts in Medicare physician reimbursement. However at just 11 X's 2010 earnings, this deal is priced to work mid-term. I usually avoid LBO related ipos, however the debt servicing is below the 20% 'avoid' threshold here and the multiple for a strong operation is cheap. I like this deal.

Note - Blackstone has announced plans to ipo at least eight of their portfolio companies in the near future. As TMH is the first in the pipeline it appears to me Blackstone wants a successful offering and has agreed to set the range at a level that should work short and mid-term.

2009-11-15
SVN - 7 Days Group

SVN - 7 Days Group Holding plans on offering 10 million ADS at a range of $9-$11. If the over-allotment is exercised the total deal size will be 11.6 million ADS. JP Morgan and Citi are leading the deal, Oppenheimer is co-managing. Post-ipo SVN will has an ADS equivalent of 50.6 million shares for a market cap of $506 million on a pricing of $10. Ipo proceeds will be utilized toi repay debt and for general corporate purposes.

　 Founder and Chairman of the Board Boquan He will own 25% of SVN post-ipo.

From the prospectus:

'We are a leading and fast growing national economy hotel chain based in China. We convert and operate limited service economy hotels across major metropolitan areas in China under our award-winning "7 Days Inn" brand.'

Hotels focusing on value-conscious business and leisure travelers.

Third largest economy hotel chain in China with 283 hotels in operation, 48 of which were managed hotels, with 28,266 hotel rooms in 41 cities, and an additional 77 hotels with 7,476 hotel rooms under conversion. Once those hotels are completed, SVN will have a presence in 59 cities. SVN has eight million people registered with their rewards '7 Days Club'. SVN also has the top ranked website for Internet traffic among Chinese economy hotel chains.

As opposed to new construction, growth has been spurred by leasing and converting existing properties into 7 Days Inns. SVN does not own the property of any of their hotels. Growth has been swift: 5 hotels in 2 cities as of the end of 2005, to 24 hotels in 7 cities as of the end of 2006, to 106 hotels in 20 cities as of the end of 2007, to 223 hotels in 33 cities as of the end of 2008 and to 283 hotels in 41 cities as of September 30, 2009.

Leading city locations are Beijing (34 hotels), Guangzhou (31 hotels), Shenzhen (31 hotels), Shanghai(23 hotels), and Wuhan (17 hotels).

Average occupancy rates were 88.1% and 88.4% for the year ended December 31, 2008 and the nine months ended September 30, 2009, respectively. Revenue per available room approximately $20 US.

Sector - China's lodging industry has grown an average of 16% annually the past four years. The economy hotel niche has grown much swifter with 80% annual growth this decade. The top ten economy hotel operators in Chinahad opened 1,736 hotels with 213,789 hotel rooms by the end of 2008. SVN believes there is still plenty of room for growth with 0.3 economy hotel rooms per 1,000 people in China in 2008, as compared to 2.5 economy hotel rooms per 1,000 people in the United States.

Financials

By paying debt off on ipo, SVN will have approximately $0.50 per share in net cash post-ipo.

Tax rate appears as if it will be in the 25% ballpark.

2009 - Numbers are pro forma as if SVN used ipo monies to pay down debt on 12/31/08. This gives us a better idea of how SVN is performing as they will look post-ipo. Revenues should be $170 million, a strong 66% increase over 2008. Growth is being fueled by aggressive growth in number of hotels under operation. Operating margins should be 8%, net margins 6%. Earnings per share should be in the $0.20 ballpark.

SVN is trending strong, improving operating expense ratios quarterly as they grow revenues through new hotels. 2010 is shaping up to be a solid year for SVN.

2010 - Revenues should grow to approximately $235 million, a 38% increase over 2009. Operating margins should improve sharply to 13%. Net margins plugging in a 25% tax rate should be a shade under 10%. Earnings per share should be $0.45. On a pricing of $10, SVN would trade 22 X's 2010 earnings.

Main public comparable here is HMIN. A quick look at each.

HMIN - $1.41 billion market cap. Currently trading 45 X's 2010 estimates with a 20% revenue growth rate.

SVN - $506 million market cap at $10. Would trade 22 X's 2010 earnings with a 38% revenue growth rate.

SVN really helped themselves paying off substantially all debt on ipo. By removing debt servicing we get a much clearer picture of an operating trending very well into ipo. Revenue are growing nicely, SVN is expanding without harming occupancy rates and margins are improving quarterly. SVN looks to be coming public very reasonably valued compared to public rival HMIN, one of the more successful China ipos this decade. Easy recommend in range, SVN should be a good deal and work short and mid-term off of range.